Why the Hispanic-American swing vote is leaning right this November
It’s one of those questions that’s been lingering in voters’ minds for a while — what’s the connection between how Hispanic-Americans feel about immigration reform and how they’re likely to cast midterm ballots?
The answer might be both, if the latest polling numbers are any indication.
According to the Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy poll, only 29 percent of Hispanic voters expect to vote for President Obama in November. But this is a much lower number than the 42 percent who voted for John Barrack Obama in 2008 or the 55 percent who voted for Barack Obama in 2004.
What’s behind these numbers? Many in the Hispanic community say immigration reform is a top concern that affects their vote in the midterms.
“They don’t vote because they’re not interested in Obama, but because they’re worried about getting illegal immigrants in the U.S. and that they don’t like about the situation,” said Luis Sanchez, a Democratic pollster and pollster for Latino Decisions who was involved in the Harvard poll. “Obama has always been their first choice; they vote for Bill Clinton and Al Gore because they think they’re better than the other guys. But there is a fear of change that was caused by the immigration issue.”
Sanchez said the polling that is done in the coming weeks will show a sharp shift for the right in the midterms.
“If you look at the Hispanic community, they’re much more conservative than the American electorate in general,” Sanchez said. “So if you have a shift right, Republicans are going to make big gains.”
The Harvard poll found that immigration reform has made up a small portion of voters’ top concerns. Other issues that the poll asked about included the economy, health care, and the way the federal government is spending money.
“If you look at the numbers, it’s interesting, especially now that Republicans are running against the president,” Sanchez said. “If you look at the Hispanic community, they’re more concerned about the economy. Health care is also very important to them. They’re very concerned about Social Security. They’re worried about the government spending.”
In June, a
